WWW.KNIGI.KONFLIB.RU

 
<< HOME
CONTACTS

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 14 | 15 ||

1 I \ . . ...

-- [ 16 ] --

, ( L ^ , :

. . j , , , t j , 7 (. 719 ^8 .

. , , 0 ^ , , ^ , k}t .

, . ^ ^ ^ . , , .

- - , . dchkon , , , 1 ( ^ , .

. - , .

6- .

.

, , .

* ^ ( ^ϲ ) , . .

) ( ,..

. ( ( , ) , - , V , .

, , , .

.

-

.

, 0 . - .

, - , .

. - 7- , ^ , ^ , .



.

{ .

, . ' .

, - (.. . ^ 4,3%, - 5, 3,9%, . . (262%), (188%), : 9 7%.

. 6^ .

" - , .

.

" .

40%).

.

, .

( ) . . , ( ), 9 0 - - .

, ^ , ' , 9. ( 9. 0- 10- * - - -

SUMMARY

A monograph Economic P rog no sticatio n" by the Soviet s c ie n tis t M.M. Golansk is an a n a lysis o f general and s p e c ific aspects o f economic prognosticatio n by means of system approach. The developing countries of A fric a are ta ken as a proving ground fo r the oretica l inferences.

The monograph includes a foreword, four chapters and tables of prognoses.

Chapter 1 deats w ith the s p e c ific features of socio economic processes that must be ta ken into account when prognosticating. Due to its sub stantie l vagueness, s c ie n tific prognostication of thse processes cannot exceed the lim its of forecasting but general development tendencies.

Chapter 2 analyses the main factors which w i " determine, w ith in the next dcades, the la s tin g tendencies of development o f newly free countries in ge neral, and those o f A fric a, in pa rticular. ln consquence o f A frica n countries being engaged in the w orld c a p ita l is t economy and the extension of the pro cesses of in te rn a tio n a l iza tio n o f ca p ita l is t reproduction, the rle and importance of global factors in th e ir development w ill increase at the expence of dim inu tion o f the rle o f lo cal factors.

Chapter 3 describes in d e ta il a global model of economic prognostication, b u ilt on the basis o f u til iza tion o f the advantages of self-d eve lop in g systme.

This model makes it po ssib le to prognosticate the moet probable changes in key economic showing of in d ivid u a l countries, being a con stituen t part o f the world economy, w ith o u t resorting to the corresponcling data on other countries.

Chapter 4 analyses the rsulte of prognoses, obtained by means o f the above mentioned global model for A frica n countries, and in c id e n ta lly, for the developed c a p ita l is t countries as w e ll, l t is supposed, th a t A frica n countries w ill remain w ith in the world c a p ita lis t system fo r the period under prognostica tion (up to the year of 2000). The prognoses show, th a t the overwhelming majo rity of A frica n cou ntrie s w ill not be able to overcome backwardness w ith in th is century, fo llo w in g the path of c a p ita lis t o rie n ta tio n. The in c a p a b ility of world ca p ita lis a i to e lim in a te backwardness in the sphere o f its influence is another m anifestation o f the further aggravation o f its generel crie ie.

.

. - .

4.

6. . -

Summa ........................... ......

1 7.1 1.8 2. 1 3.0 7.8 3.

1 2 3 7 5, 6 0 x 9 0 / \ q. . 1. .

- , , , , '. , . , - .

.. - . 2 0 .

4 0 7 0 - X X . . , , . , 7 0 - .

74, 75, 77, 79, .. - ^ . 2 0 .

4 0 7 0 - X X . . , , . , 7 0 - .



Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 14 | 15 ||
 

:

- 120 , 1 9 2 6 8772. 10000. . , . , 21 4- . , ....

1. . , - , .. .., . ...

1933 - 1945 . . : . ? . . . , . ...

030600.68 (, ) .. I. 1.1. ( - ). ...

- - 2002 : . . - 48 /, . . . . . .: , 2002. 224 . 15 5-8071-0062- . , , ...

. - .. ' . . , . - * (. 1895) (. 1899). . ....

. - 2003 882 66.3(2)8 78 . 78 . . . .: - , 2003. 480 , . ISBN 5-699-01995-2 , , , . ...

2- ^ 2003 316 (075.8) 60.5 67 : - , , .., , . . .., . ., . ., . . 67 : / . . .. . . 2-, . . .: ,...

, . . , ( 02-03-18288). 74 , ,...

. . / : , ; .; 2010 ISBN 978-5-17-065404-8,978-5-271-26904-2 ? , ? ?. , , ...






 
<<     |    
2013 www.knigi.konflib.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .