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http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/0204.green.html.

586. Bill McInturff. http://www.pos.org/about/mcinturff.asp.

587. Neumayr G. Over Before It Began. http://spectator.org/archives/2008/11/07/over-beforeitbegan/print.

588. In Memo, McCains Top Pollster Sees Tighter Race. http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/28/in-memo-mccains-top-pollster-sees-tighter-race/.

589. McInturff Memo on Exit Polls. http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2008/11/03/mccaincamp-memo-on-exit-polls/.

590. Mccain Pollster Revisits 08 Campaign. http://www.wikio.com/politics/political_personalities/bill_mcinturff.

591. Benenson Strategy Group. http://www.bsgco.com/.

593. Obama Seldom Asks His Pollster to Play the Role of an Oracle.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/03/nyregion/nyregionspecial2/03robama.html.

594. Sullivan A. Doing the Math. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1856984html.

595. Ryan Lizza Battle Plans.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/11/17/081117fa_fact_lizza?printable=true.

596. Lombardo S. Why Obama Won. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/why_obama_won.php.

597. Biden Seen as Frontrunner for VP Nomination. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/biden_seen_as_frontrunner_for_vp 598. Biden Viewed Favorably by 43%, Seen as Politically Liberal by 41%. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_e lection/biden_viewed_favorably_by_43_seen_as_politically_liberal_by_41.

599. 39% Say Biden the Right Choice, Women Less Enthusiastic.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/39_say_biden_the_right_choice_women_less_enth

600. 47% Now Say Biden Was Good Veep Choice for Democrats. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/47_now_say_biden_was_good_veep_choice_for_democrats.

601. Saad L. Biden Does No Harm, but May Not Help Much.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109783/Biden-Does-Harm-May-Help-Much.aspx#1.

602. Ibid.

603. John McCains Top 24 Potential Picks for Vice-President.

http://rightwingnews.com/mt331/2008/02/john_mccains_top_22_potential.php.

604. Jones J.M. No Consensus Favorite Among Republicans for McCain VP.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106129/Consensus-Favorite-Among-RepublicansMcCain.aspx.

605. Nagourney A. McCain to Meet Possible Running Mates.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/us/politics/21cnd-mccain.html?hp.

606. Camp L. McCains Short List for VP Leaked to Press.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/archive/236/blog/w/lee_camp/mccains_short_list_for_vp _leak_6780.html.

607. Sarah Palin. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin.

608. Newport F. Palin Unknown to Most Americans. http://www.gallup.com/poll/109951/PalinUnknown-Most-Americans.aspx.

609. Ibid.

610. Sarah Palin: Unknown Nationally, Popular in Alaska.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/sarah_palin_unknown_nationally_popular_in_alaska.

611. Palin Makes Good First Impression: Is Viewed More Favorably than Biden.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/palin_makes_good_first_impression_is_viewed_m ore_favorably_than_biden.

612. Prepared to Be President. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/majority_of_voters_say_only_mccain_biden _prepared_to_be_president.

613. Jones J. M. Public Divided on Whether Obama Has Necessary Experience.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104752/Public-Divided-Whether-Obama-Has-NecessaryExperience.aspx.

614. Newport F. Gallup Daily: McCain at 47% to Obamas 44%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104971/Gallup-Daily-McCain-47-Obamas-44.aspx.

615. Newport F. Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, Clinton 46%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105970/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-Clinton-46.aspx.

616. Newport F. Obama, Clinton Leverage Different Groups vs. McCain.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105964/Obama-Clinton-Leverage-Different-Groups-vsMcCain.aspx.

617. Ibid.

626 618. Jones J. M. Dems, Reps Agree: Obama Tougher Opponent for McCain.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105904/Dems-Reps-Agree-Obama-Tougher-OpponentMcCain.aspx.

619. Saad L. Clinton Less Appealing Than Obama as Potential V.P.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105943/Clinton-Less-Appealing-Than-Obama-Potential-VP.aspx.

620. Newport F. Better Days Ahead for Democrats? http://www.gallup.com/poll/105808/BetterDays-Ahead-Democrats.aspx.

621. Saad L. Gallup Daily: Race Still Close with Obama 47%, Clinton 46%.



http://www.gallup.com/poll/106855/Gallup-Daily-Race-Still-Close-Obama-47-Clinton-46.aspx.

622. Zogby: McCain Leads Clinton, Trails Obama in National General Election Match-ups.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1490.

623. Sidoti L. AP Poll: Clinton leads McCain by 9 points.

http://koreanpower999.wordpress.com/2008/04/29/ap-poll-clinton-leads-mccain-by-9points/.

624. Saad L. McCain Widely Recognized as a War Hero.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106864/McCain-Widely-Recognized-War-Hero.aspx.

626. Jones J. M. Only 33% Say McCain Has Clear Plan to Solve U.S. Problems.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106837/Only-33-Say-McCain-Has-Clear-Plan-Solve-USProblems.aspx#1.

627. Jones J. M. Top-of-Mind Candidate Perceptions In-Depth.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106909/TopofMind-Candidate-Perceptions-InDepth.aspx.

628. McCain Gains On Issues, But Stalls As Candidate Of Change. http://peoplepress.org/report/?pageid=1374.

629. Top of the Mind Impressions of Obama. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1218/changing-inaword-impressions-of-barack-obama.

630. Saad L. Black Spokesman Title Still up for Grabs.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108805/Black-Spokesman-Title-Still-Grabs.aspx.

631. Voters Trust McCain More than Either Democratic Candidate on Key Issues. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/issues2/articles/voters_trust_mccain_more_th an_either_democratic_candidate_on_key_issues.

632. 52% Say Candidate Policies Matter More Than Character, 36% Disagree. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/52_say_candidate_policies_matter_more_than_character_36_disagree.

633. Klein E. The Obama-McCain Age Gap that Matters.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-op-klein1jun01%2C0%2C2168608.story.

634. Zogby Survey Finds U.S. Adults Committed To High Tech Economy.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1706.

635. Election of Our Discontent? 48% of Likely Voters Dissatisfied With Current Crop of Presidential Candidates. Zogby Poll: Election of Our Discontent? 48% of Likely Voters Dissatisfied With Current Crop of Presidential Candidates.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1505.

636. Interactive Graph: Follow the General Election.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-Follow-General-Election.aspx.

637. Babington C. Obama Begins General Campaign in Low-key Style. http://www.politicalbase.com/news/obama-begins-general-campaign-in-low-key-style/91593/.

638. Dimock M. Belief that Obama is Muslim is Durable, Bipartisan but Most Likely to Sway Democratic Votes. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/898/belief-that-obama-is-muslim-isbipartisan-but-most-likely-to-sway-democrats.

639. No Decline in Belief That Obama is a Muslim. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1176/obamamuslim-opinion-not-changed.

640. McCains Enthusiasm Gap, Obamas Unity Gap. http://peoplepress.org/reports/pdf/436.pdf.

641. Bill Clinton Offers Support To Obama. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/06/24/politics/main4205312.shtml.

642. Ibid.

643. Brooks D. J. Unfair Campaigning? It Depends on Whom You Ask.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108919/Unfair-Campaigning-Depends-Whom-Ask.aspx.

644. Saad L. Gallup Daily: Obama Retains 5-Point Lead.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108499/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Retains-5Point-Lead.aspx.

645. Jones J. M. About One in Four Voters Are Swing Voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108466/About-One-Four-Voters-Swing-Voters.aspx.

646. Likely Rise in Voter Turnout Bodes Well for Democrats. http://peoplepress.org/report/436/obama-mccain-july.

647. Obama Leads Bush by Twenty, But Clinton Does Better Against McCain.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/obama_leads_bush_by_twenty_but_clinton_does_better_against_mccain.

648. Think Europe Should Be More Like U.S. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/55_rate_obama_s_berlin_speech_ good_or_excellent_46_think_europe_should_be_more_like_u_s.

649. Belief Growing That Reporters are Trying to Help Obama Win.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_e lection/belief_growing_that_reporters_are_trying_to_help_obama_win.

650. Glover M. Obama Calls McCain Campaign Cynical but not Racist.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/topstories/2008-08-01-2873054939_x.htm.

651. Obama = Britney and Paris?

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/07/30/1233519.aspx.

652. Only 22% Say McCain Ad Racist, But Over Half (53%) See Obama Dollar-bill Comment That Way. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/only_22_say_mccain_ad_racist_but_over_half_53_see_obama_dollar_bill _comment_that_way.

653. U.S. President / National / Exit Poll.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html.

654. Gallup Daily: Election 2008. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-FollowGeneral-Election.aspx.

655. Obama Fatigue 48% Hearing Too Much About Him. http://peoplepress.org/report/441/obama-fatigue.

656. Over $100 Million Spent on Pres. Campaign TV Ads to Date But Little-Nothing in Super Tuesday States. http://wiscadproject.wisc.edu/wiscads_pressrelease_020108.pdf.

628 657. Nearly $200 Million Spent on Presidential Campaign TV Ads to Date. http://wiscadproject.wisc.edu/wiscads_pressrelease_060208.pdf.

658. Obama Outspending Mccain 3 to 1 on TV.

http://wiscadproject.wisc.edu/wiscAds_release_103108.pdf.

659. Over $100 Million Spent on Pres. Campaign TV Ads to Date But Little-Nothing in Super Tuesday States. http://wiscadproject.wisc.edu/wiscads_pressrelease_020108.pdf.





660. Newport F. Gallup Daily: Obama at 45%, McCain at 44%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109675/Gallup-Daily-Obama-45-McCain-44.aspx.

661. Jones J. M. An Early Gallup Road Map to the McCain-Obama Matchup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107689/Early-Gallup-Road-Map-McCainObama-Matchup.aspx.

663. Jones J. M. Forty-Somethings May Hold Key to Election.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108064/FortySomethings-May-Hold-Key-Election.aspx.

664. Jones J. M. Forty-Somethings May Hold Key to Election.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108064/FortySomethings-May-Hold-Key-Election.aspx.

665. Horowitz J. M. Should Women Worry Obama? http://pewresearch.org/pubs/902/shouldwomen-worry-obama.

666. Silver N. Will Young Voters Turn Out For Obama?

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08102008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/will_young_voters_turn_out_for_obama123794.htm.

667. Abramowitz A. I. Does Obama Have a Problem with White Voters? http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/does _obama_have_a_problem_with_white_voters.

668. Frommer F. J. Black conservatives conflicted on Obama campaign.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/06/14/national/w083016D80.DTL&feed=rss.news.

671. Jones J. M. An Early Gallup Road Map to the McCain-Obama Matchup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107689/Early-Gallup-Road-Map-McCainObamaMatchup.aspx.

672. Jones J. M. Obama Holds Slim Advantage Over McCain Among Catholics.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108382/Obama-Holds-Slim-Advantage-Over-McCain-AmongCatholics.aspx.

673. Newport F. Religious Intensity Predicts Support for McCain.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108688/Religious-Intensity-Predicts-Support-McCain.aspx.

674. Zeleny J. Obama Wants to Expand Role of Religious Groups.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/02/us/politics/02campaigncnd.html?hp.

675. Electoral College History. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/electoral_college_history.

676. Real Clear Politics. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/.

677. Jones J. M. An Early Gallup Road Map to the McCain-Obama Matchup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107689/Early-Gallup-Road-Map-McCainObamaMatchup.aspx.

678. Jones J. M. Democrats Leading McCain in Purple States.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106579/Democrats-Leading-McCain-Purple-States.aspx.

679. Jones J. M. Obama Gains over McCain in Swing States Since June.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109036/Obama-Gains-Over-McCain-Swing-States-SinceJune.aspx.

680. Barone M. General Election Campaign Begins with New Playing Field. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/general_election_campaign_begi.html.

681. Ibid.

682. Sabato L. The Map: The Crystal Balls First Look at Novembers Electoral College.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry _j_sabato/the_map_the_crystal_ball_s_first_look_at_november_s_electoral_college.

683. Rothenberg S. The Big 5: Picking the States That Will Pick the President. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/the_big_5_picking_the_states_t.html.

684. Zogby J. The Changing Times and the Equinox Voter.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1521.

685. Baker M. Obama Predicts Black Voter Increase, Southern Wins.

http://www2.scnow.com/scp/news/politics/north_carolina/article/obama_predicts_black_ voter_increase_southern_wins/10924.

686. Clift E. Mapping a Win. http://www.newsweek.com/id/143474.

687. Bevan T. Assessing the Dem Primary Fallout. http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/06/assessing_the_clinton_fallout.html.

688. Electoral Votes. http://www.270towin.com/.

689. Abramowitz A. The Color Purple: An Examination of the 2008 Presidential Election in the Swing States. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/the-color-purple-anexami_b_115033.html.

690. Newport F. Obama Has Edge on Key Election Issues.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108331/Obama-Has-Edge-Key-Election-Issues.aspx.

691. Saad L. McCain vs. Obama as Commander in Chief.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108373/McCain-vs-Obama-Commander-Chief.aspx.

692. Kraushaar J. Clark hits McCains Military Credentials. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11425.html.

693. Jones J. M. Views of Obama on International Matters Little Changed.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109189/Views-Obama-International-Matters-LittleChanged.aspx.

694. Jones J. M. Obama Holds Lead Over McCain on Top Issue of Economy.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109786/Obama-Holds-Lead-Over-McCain-Top-IssueEconomy.aspx.

695. Jacobe D. Americans Oppose Income Redistribution to Fix Economy.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108445/Americans-Oppose-Income-Redistribution-FixEconomy.aspx.

696. Ibid.

697. Newport F. Americans Split on Redistributing Wealth by Taxing the Rich.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111655/Americans-Split-Redistributing-Wealth-TaxingRich.aspx.

698. Ibid.

630 699. Jacobe D. Half of Americans Expect Obama to Raise Their Taxes.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109816/Half-Americans-Expect-Obama-Raise-TheirTaxes.aspx.

700. Jones J. M. Views of Income Taxes Among Most Positive Since 1956.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/117433/Views-Income-Taxes-Among-Positive-1956.aspx.

701. Jones J. M. Americans on Energy: Promote Both New Sources and Old.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116713/Americans-Energy-Promote-New-Sources-Old.aspx.

702. Newport F. High Expectations for Obama on the Environment.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/117775/High-Expectations-Obama-Environment.aspx.

703. Jeffrey M. J. Support for Nuclear Energy Inches Up to New High.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/117025/Support-Nuclear-Energy-Inches-New-High.aspx.

704. Saad L. Nuclear Power Less Popular Than Other Energy Strategies.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109342/Nuclear-Power-Less-Popular-Than-Other-EnergyStrategies.aspx.

705. Saad L. Americans Rate National and Personal Healthcare Differently.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112813/Americans-Rate-National-Personal-HealthcareDifferently.aspx.

706. Healthcare System. http://www.gallup.com/poll/4708/Healthcare-System.aspx.

707. Saad L. Abortion Issue Laying Low in 2008 Campaign.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107458/Abortion-Issue-Laying-Low-2008-Campaign.aspx.

708. Abortion. http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/Abortion.aspx#1.

709. Newport F., Saad L. Religion, Politics Inform Americans Views on Abortion.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/22222/Religion-Politics-Inform-Americans-ViewsAbortion.aspx.

710. Saad L. Will the Abortion Issue Help or Hurt McCain?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110002/Will-Abortion-Issue-Help-Hurt-McCain.aspx.

712. Ray J. Medicine Meets Morality in Stem Cell Debate.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/8995/Medicine-Meets-Morality-Stem-Cell-Debate.aspx.

713. Carroll J. Party Lines Shape Views of Whats Morally Acceptable.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/16465/Party-Lines-Shape-Views-Whats-MorallyAcceptable.aspx.

714. Morales L. Majority of Americans Likely Support Stem Cell Decision.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116485/Majority-Americans-Likely-Support-Stem-CellDecision.aspx.

715. Jones J. M. Iraq War Impact on the Vote. http://www.gallup.com/poll/27961/Iraq-WarImpact-Vote.aspx.

716. Saad L. Americans on Iraq: Should the U.S. Stay or Go?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104950/Americans-Iraq-Should-US-Stay-Go.aspx.

717. Newport F. Exploring the Iraq Timetable Issue Newport F. Exploring the Iraq Timetable Issue. http://www.gallup.com/poll/109294/Exploring-Iraq-Timetable-Issue.aspx.

718. Saad L. Canada Remains Americans Most Favored Nation.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/115258/Canada-Remains-Americans-Favored-Nation.aspx.

719. Morales L. Americans See Afghanistan War as Still Worth Fighting.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/115270/Americans-Afghanistan-War-Worth-Fighting.aspx.

720. 48% Agree With Obama That Iraq is Not Central Front in War on Terror. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/the_war_in_iraq/48_agree_with _obama_that_iraq_is_not_central_front_in_war_on_terror.

721. Ibid.

722. Jones J. M. Views of Obama on International Matters Little Changed.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109189/Views-Obama-International-Matters-LittleChanged.aspx.

723. Saad L. Americans Predict Obama Will Be Next U.S. President.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107995/Americans-Predict-Obama-Will-Next-US-President.aspx.

724. Ibid.

725. Newport F. Large Democratic Base Provides Big Advantage for Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107842/Large-Democratic-Base-Provides-Big-AdvantageObama.aspx.

726. Fox News Poll. Opinion Dynamics. 19 June, 2008.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/061908_release_web.pdf.

727. McCains Enthusiasm Gap, Obamas Unity Gap. http://peoplepress.org/reports/pdf/436.pdf.

728. Saad L. July Leader Lost in 6 of Last 9 Competitive U.S. Elections.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108676/July-Leader-Lost-Last-Competitive-US-Elections.aspx.

729. Baudinet M. Time Is on My Side: The Nomination Gap.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=MAB2008062601.

730. Abramowitz A. I. Is Time on John McCains Side?

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan _i_abramowitz/is_time_on_john_mccain_s_side.

731. Abramowitz A., Mann T. E., Sabato L. J. The Myth of a Toss-Up Election. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramo witz/the_myth_of_a_toss_up_election.

732. Newport F. Shifts in Last Two Months of Election Not Uncommon. Average Change in Gap Since 1936 is 6.6 Points. http://www.gallup.com/poll/110074/Shifts-Last-TwoMonths-Election-Uncommon.aspx.

733. Gallup Daily: Election 2008. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Electionaspx.

734. Abramowitz A. Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model.

http://www.apsanet.org/imgtest/PSOct08Abramowitz.pdf.

735. Site Note. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/site-note.html.

736. Silver N. Black, Youth and Latino Turnout, and Obamas Electoral Map.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/black-youth-and-latino-turnout-and.html.

737. . . -: . .: , 2006. . 94101.

738. Barone M. Ghosts of 1976 in Todays Campaign.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_mich ael_barone/ghosts_of_1976_in_today_s_campaign.

632 739. McCains Enthusiasm Gap, Obamas Unity Gap. http://peoplepress.org/reports/pdf/436.pdf.

741. Newport F. McCains Age Seen as More of a Problem than Obamas Race.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108712/McCains-Age-Seen-More-Problem-Than-ObamasRace.aspx.

742. CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. June, 2629.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/07/04/rel8i.pdf.

743. More Voters than Ever Say They Would Vote for Black Candidate, Still Not Sure About Friends. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/more_voters_than_ever_say_they_would_vote_for_black_candidate_still_ not_sure_about_friends.

744. CBS News/New York Times Poll. Jan., 912, 2008. http://www.pollingreport.com/politics.htm.

745. Barone M. Obamas Candidacy is a Test. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/obamas_candidacy_is_a_test.html.

746. Partisan Trends. Number of Democrats in US Declines in July.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/p 747. Newport F., Jones J. M. Assessing the Impact of Obamas Trip.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109132/Assessing-Impact-Obamas-Trip.aspx.

748. Newport F. Who Are Likely Voters and When Do They Matter?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx.

749. Barone M. Polls Continue to Show an Unstable Presidential Campaign. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/polls_ continue_to_show_an_unstable_presidential_campaign.

750. Voters Trust for McCain on Key Issues Growing.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_e lection/voters_trust_for_mccain_on_key_issues_growing.

751. Jeffrey M. Jones Support for Third-Party Candidates Appears Limited thus Far.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109435/Support-ThirdParty-Candidates-Appears-LimitedThus-Far.aspx.

752. 49% Say Hillary Likely to Overshadow Obama at Convention. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/49_say_hillary_likely_to_overshadow_obama_at_convention.

753. Gallup Daily: Election 2008. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-FollowGeneral-Election.aspx.

754. Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama. Obama Loses Ground Among Dems, Women, Catholics & Even Younger Voters.

http://www.zogby.com/news/readnews.cfm?ID=1541.

755. Zogby J. Obama in Denver: A Defining Moment.

http://www.zogby.com/news/readnews.cfm.

757. Gallups Pre-Convention Poll Points Election Insights Heading into a Key Stretch of the 2008 Presidential Race. http://www.gallup.com/poll/109762/Gallups-PreConvention-PollPoints.aspx.

758. Schneider B. Why Party Conventions Still Exist. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/22/schneider.conventions/index.html.

759. Party Time: Democrats Primed To Tune into Convention.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/931/news-interest-democratic-convention.

760. Half of Democrats Say Putting Hillarys Name in Nomination Will Help Unify Party.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/half_of_democrats_say_putting_hillary_s_name_in_nomination_will_help _unify_party.

761. Mears W. R. Former Gov. Warner: Party Must Seize Opportunity. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/26/former-gov-warner-party-m_n_121648.html.

762. Lindlaw S. Bill Clinton forcefully endorses Obama at DNC.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/WireStory?id=5671072&page=1.

763. More Clintonites Backing Obama. http://www.gallup.com/video/109969/More-ClintonitesBacking-Obama.aspx.

764. Jones J. M. Hillary Clintons Speech Well-Received.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109909/Hillary-Clintons-Speech-WellReceived.aspx.

765. Mears W. R. Biden Says Nation Needs More than a Good Soldier.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/topstories/2008-08-27-1600255228_x.htm.

766. Obama B. The American Promise.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/the_american_promise.html.

767. Jones J. M. Obama Acceptance Speech Gets High Marks from Public.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109948/Obama-Acceptance-Speech-Gets-High-Marks-FromPublic.aspx.

768. Jones J. M. Conventions Typically Result in Five-Point Bounce.Party, Order of Convention has Made Little Difference in Size of Bounce.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109702/Conventions-Typically-Result-FivePointBounce.aspx.

769. Jones J. Gallup Daily: Race Tied as Democratic Convention Starts.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109792/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tied-Democratic-ConventionStarts.aspx.

770. Gallup Daily: Election 2008. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Electionaspx.

771. Sarah Palins Speech at the Republican National Convention.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/conventions/videos/20080903_PALIN_SPEE CH.html#.

772. Schneider B. Analysis: McCain Sincere, Short on Answers.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/05/schneider.speech/index.html.

773. Newport F. Republicans Enthusiasm Jumps After Convention.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110107/Republicans-Enthusiasm-Jumps-After-Convention.aspx.

774. Gallup Daily: Election 2008. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-FollowGeneral-Election.aspx.

775. Ibid.

776. How do Gallups likely voter models work? http://www.gallup.com/poll/111268/HowGallups-likely-voter-models-work.aspx.

777. Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional). http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-DailyLikely-Voters-Traditional.aspx.

634 778. Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Expanded). http://www.gallup.com/poll/111121/Gallup-DailyLikely-Voters-Expanded.aspx.

779. Early Read on Early Voting, Could Reach 30%. Obama and McCain Supporters Voting Early at About the Same Rate. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111430/early-voting-now-11-couldreach-30.aspx.

780. Newport F. Early Voting Now Up to 18%. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111580/EarlyVoting-Now-18.aspx.

781. Gallup Daily: Early Voting. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111304/Gallup-Daily-EarlyVoting.aspx.

782. Jeffrey M. J. Recent Obama Surge Evident Among Men, Less Educated.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111205/Recent-Obama-Surge-Evident-Among-Men-LessEducated.aspx.

783. Newport F., Jones J. M. Young Voters Favor Obama, but How Many Will Vote?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111310/Young-Voters-Favor-Obama-How-Many-Will-Vote.aspx.

784. Newport F. Hispanic Voters Divided by Religion.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111301/Hispanic-Voters-Divided-Religion.aspx.

785. Saad L. Obama Winning Over the Jewish Vote.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111424/Obama-Winning-Over-Jewish-Vote.aspx.

786. Newport F. McCain Still Dominant Among the Highly Religious.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109678/McCain-Still-Dominant-Among-Highly-Religious.aspx.

787. Newport F. Religion Remains Major Dividing Factor Among White Voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110053/Religion-Remains-Major-Dividing-Factor-AmongWhite-Voters.aspx.

788. Newport F. As the Economy Goes, So Goes the Vote.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111283/Economy-Goes-Goes-Vote.aspx.

789. Pelham B. Life Satisfaction Predicts Voter Preferences.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111694/Life-Satisfaction-Predicts-Voter-Preferences.aspx.

790. Candidate Support by Political Party and Ideology.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108049/Candidate-Support-Political-Party-Ideology.aspx.

791. Saad L. McCain Now Winning Majority of Independents.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx.

792. Zogby Electoral Map: Obama Falls Below Needed 270 as McCain Rises. Florida to McCain, as Colorado and New Hampshire Now Too Close to Call.

http://www.zogby.com/news/readnews.dbm?ID=1543.

793. Stern C. Obama Will Win Colorado, Beating McCain, Denver Mayor Says. http://www.bloombergradio.us/apps/news?pid=20601070&refer=politics&sid=aV.HVgqmd6uw.

794. Candidate Support by Red, Purple, and Blue States.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108061/Candidate-Support-Red-Purple-Blue-States.aspx.

795. FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling October 26, 2008.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling_october_26_2008.

796. Election 2008: Florida Presidential Election. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election.

797. Election 2008: Ohio Presidential Election. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohi o_presidential_election.

798. Election 2008: North Carolina Presidential Election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election.

799. Election 2008: Indiana Presidential Election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/indiana/election_2008_indiana_presidential_election.

800. Electoral College Update. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update.

801. Road to 270: Indiana. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/road-to-270-indiana.html.

802. Road to 270: Virginia. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/road-to-270-virginia.html.

803. Most Adults Say Starbucks is Overpriced. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/general_lifestyle/most_adults_say_starbucks_is_overpriced.

804. Americans Still Like Wal-Mart, Say Its Good for the Community. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/americans_still_like_wal_mart_say _it_s_good_for_the_community.

805. Virginia. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/road-to-270-virginia.html.

806. Ohio. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/road-to-270-ohio.html.

807. Florida. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/road-to-270-florida.html.

808. Saad L. Blacks, Postgrads, Young Adults Help Obama Prevail.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111781/Blacks-Postgrads-Young-Adults-Help-ObamaPrevail.aspx.

809. Voter Turnout in the United States Presidential Elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections.

810. United States Presidential Election, 2008.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Turnout.

811. Newport F. Americans See Obama Election as Race Relations Milestone. http://www.gallup.com/ poll/111817/Americans-See-Obama-Election-Race-Relations-Milestone.aspx.

812. Saad L. Nearly Half of Conservatives Confident in Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111880/Nearly-Half-Conservatives-Confident-Obama.aspx.

813. Inside Obamas Sweeping Victory. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1023/exit-poll-analysis-2008.

814. Exit Polls. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1.

815. Selected Exit Poll Comparisons, 200020042008.

http://observationalism.com/2008/11/09/selected-exit-poll-comparisons-2000-2004comment-5146.

816. U.S. President / National / Exit Poll.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html.

636 817. More Exit Poll Comparisons, 200020042008.

http://observationalism.com/2008/11/10/more-exit-poll-comparisons-2000-2004-2008/.

819. Inside Obamas Sweeping Victory. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1023/exit-poll-analysis-2008.

820. Zogby J. Americans Dream Simpler Dreams Part I: The Consumers.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1656.

821. Zogby J. Americans Dream Simpler Dreams Part II: The Voters.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1658/.

822. More Exit Poll Comparisons, 200020042008.

http://observationalism.com/2008/11/10/more-exit-poll-comparisons-2000-2004-2008/.

823. Voter Turnout in the United States Presidential Elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections.

824. Klinker P.A., Schaller T. LBJs Revenge: The 2008 Election and the Rise of the Great Society Coalition // The Forum. 2008. V. 6. Issue 4. http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1269&context=forum.

825. United States Presidential Election Results. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/.

826. Electoral History Charts. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/electoral-historycharts.html.

827. The Contact Gap: Proof of the Importance of the Ground Game? http:// www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/contact-gap-proof-of-importance-of.html.

828. Dave Leips Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/.

829. Franklin C. Undecided Voters and Racial Attitudes. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/undecided_voters_and_racial_at.php.

830. NCPP Analysis of Final Presedential Pre-Election Pools, 2008.

http://www.ncpp.org/files/NCPP_2008_analysis_of_election_polls_121808%20pdf_0.pdf.

831. General Election: McCain vs. Obama. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html.

832. Blumenthal M. Pollster Accuracy and the National Polls By.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pollster_accuracy_and_the_nati.php.

833. Candidate Estimate Errors. http://ncpp.org/files/08FNL_NCPP_Natl_Polls.pdf.

834. Focus: 2008 Presidential Election. http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/accuracy/fallwinter2008/news.html#FPE.

835. Election Results Further Validate Efficacy of Harris Interactives Online Methodology.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/allnewsbydate.asp?NewsID=1347.

839. Comparison Tables: 2008 Zogby International Polling Numbers.

http://www.zogby.com/features/featuredtables.cfm?ID=170.

840. Election 2008: Ohio Presidential Election. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohi o_presidential_election.

841. Election 2008: Missouri Presidential Election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election.

842. Election 2008: Indiana Presidential Election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/indiana/election_2008_indiana_presidential_election.

843. Election 2008: Nevada Presidential Election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election.

844. Election 2008: Virginia Presidential Election. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election.

845. Morales L. Most Americans Closely Watching Obamas Transition.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111970/Most-Americans-Closely-Watching-ObamasTransition.aspx.

846. Morales L. Gallup Daily: Tracking the New Administrations Progress.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111739/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-New-AdministrationsProgress.aspx.

847. Gallup Daily: Confidence in Obama. http://www.gallup.com/poll/112006/Gallup-DailyConfidence-Obama.aspx.

848. Saad L. Nearly Half of Conservatives Confident in Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111880/Nearly-Half-Conservatives-Confident-Obama.aspx.

849. Newport F. Americans Remain Confident in Obama as President.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112279/Americans-Remain-Confident-ObamaPresident.aspx.

850. Gallup Daily: Obama Favorability. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111772/Gallup-DailyObama-Favorability.aspx.

851. Jones J. M. Economy Runaway Winner as Most Important Problem.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112093/Economy-Runaway-Winner-Most-ImportantProblem.aspx.

852. Saad L. Idea of Economic Depression Becoming Less Far-Fetched.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113509/Idea-Economic-Depression-Becoming-LessFarFetched.aspx#1.

853. Jones J. M. Economy Runaway Winner as Most Important Problem.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112093/Economy-Runaway-Winner-Most-ImportantProblem.aspx.

854. Ibid.

855. Jones J. M. Personal Satisfaction Ratings Decline to Lowest Since 1992.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113050/Personal-Satisfaction-Ratings-Decline-Lowest-Sinceaspx.

856. Saad L. Americans Christmas Budget Falls $200 Below Last Years.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113203/Americans-Christmas-Budget-Falls-200-Below-LastYears.aspx.

857. Saad L., Jones J. M. Gains under Bush Seen on AIDS, Race Relations, Little Else.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113680/gains-under-bush-seen-aids-race-relations-littleelse.aspx.

858. Saad L. Obama and Bush: A Contrast in Popularity.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111838/Obama-Bush-Contrast-Popularity.aspx.

638 859. Jones J. M. Americans Hopeful Obama Can Accomplish Most Key Goals.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111853/Americans-Hopeful-Obama-Can-Accomplish-MostKey-Goals.aspx.

861. Newport F. Obama Wins 83% Approval Rating for Transition.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113824/Obama-Wins-83-Approval-Rating-Transition.aspx.

862. Jones J. M. Obama National Security Picks Get High Marks.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112804/Obama-National-Security-Picks-Get-HighMarks.aspx.

863. Jones J. M. Domestic Priorities Top Americans To-Do List for Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113869/Domestic-Priorities-Top-Americans-ListObama.aspx.

864. Saad L. In U.S., 60% Tuned In to Inauguration as It Happened.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113920/Tuned-Inauguration-Happened.aspx.

865. Morales L. Americans Anticipate Historic Inauguration, Excellent Speech.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113848/Americans-Anticipate-Historic-Inauguration-ExcellentSpeech.aspx.

866. President Obamas Inaugural Address. http://www.america.gov/st/usgenglish/2009/January/20090120130302abretnuh0.2991602.html.

867. Morales L. Americans Anticipate Historic Inauguration, Excellent Speech.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113848/Americans-Anticipate-Historic-Inauguration-ExcellentSpeech.aspx.

868. Saad L. In U.S., 60% Turned In to Inauguration as It Happened.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113920/Tuned-Inauguration-Happened.aspx.

869. . . . . . . .:

870. / . . . , . . . .: , 1980.

871. // . . . . . : , 1974.

872. ., . : // : . 1999. 6. . 29.

http://www.pseudology.org/Gallup/Doktorov.htm.

873. Page B. I., Shapiro R. Y. The Rational Public. Fifty Years of Trends in Americans Policy Preferences. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1992.

874. . . : . . .: , 2008.

http://www.pseudology.org/Gallup/ReklamaOprosy.pdf.

875. . . -. . .:

, 2006.

http://www.sheregi.ru/files/Doktorov_001_488t.pdf.

876. Jones J. M. John Edwards, Sarah Palin Both See Favorable Ratings Slide.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/123698/John-Edwards-Sarah-Palin-Favorable-RatingsSlide.aspx.

877. 27% Say Hillary Would Be Better President than Obama.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/november_2009/27_say_hillary_would_be_better_president_than_obama.

. . 10.11.2010. 7090 1/16.

. . . . . 46,8.

125009, . , ., . 9/8, . 3 ˻.

170040, . , 50 ,46.



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