«МИГРАЦИЯ В ЗЕРКАЛЕ СТРАН СНГ (МОЛОДЕЖНЫЙ РАКУРС) Под редакцией Ирины Молодиковой Москва 2006 3 Проект инициирован Институтом Открытое Общество, Международной Ассоциацией ...»
According to the official statistics labor migration beyond Uzbekistan’s frontiers is insignificant in comparison with the potent stream of illegal (or non-registered) labor migrants. It should be mentioned that the illegal labor migration exceeds the legal one not by several times but by an order of magnitude. One can estimate scales of labor migration from Uzbekistan only on the basis of sociological surveys and expert opinions. Estimate of outward labor migration scales, depending on seasons of a year, varies from 100 to 500 thousand people. This estimate does not include near-border migrations and it is very difficult to estimate scale of these movements.
According to various estimates, as of now, number of people who work at international labor markets outside of Uzbekistan fluctuates from 600 to thousand people. That comprises from 6 or 8 to 14.5% of economically active population.
Influx of foreign currency remitted by migrant workers to home has a considerable importance for Uzbekistan’s economy. According to appraisals made by L. P. Maksakova, in 2003 the minimum transfer of money earned by migrants to Uzbekistan comprised about US $ 500 million (Labor migration: social and legal aspects. Tashkent, 2005, p. 14).
Even though labor migration of young people from Uzbekistan does not prevail, it is growing year by year. In recent years, due to high birth rates in the previous years, trend of increasing supply of young labor which does not match to the effective demand for it at the domestic market and extension of possibilities for access to international labor markets contributed to formation of international labor migration streams and is an important factor of ensuring employment of young people and enhancement of their territorial and social mobility.
The survey carried out revealed certain trends. Mobility of young people is rising. Geography of travels is very extensive and embraces not only CIS countries but distant foreign countries as well. Russia still is the main attractor: more than one third of those who want to get employment, learning and improve skills went to Russia and one fifth went to Kazakhstan for these purposes. More than a half of young students involved in international migration took part in it for the sake of studies and vocational training. The youth migration is growing younger and attracts ever increasing number of young girls and students from 20 to 24 years old.
More than 80% of students express their willingness to go to another country for learning or work. A half of them see real possibilities for such journeys, yet a few (14%) were going to leave in the forthcoming years.
That indicates a rather considerable potential for temporary labor migration of young people. It should be emphasized that Russian-speaking population has a considerably stronger orientation to migration.
Very much like Georgia and Uzbekistan, Moldova is a pronounced donor country. According to estimates, the total number of employed abroad is 600 thousand people. Thus, according to IMF estimates, amount of money remitted by citizens of Moldova employed abroad comprised US $ million in 2003 or 17% of GDP. According to some ‘conservative estimates, the average amount of money remittances will comprise US $ 600 million or 31% of GDP5. As citizens polled indicate the most popular countries of employment are Russia (54.7%), Ukraine (2.8%). Italy (18.0%) Greece, Portugal, Turkey (from 3.9 to 4.4%), Israel (2.8%) while mere 9.8% of the polled preferred other countries. According to primary data obtained in result of information campaign carried out by IOM, from 60 to 80% of the total number of emigrants leave for abroad illegally.
Types of labor migration are transforming. It should be mentioned that the initial type of economic migration, the ‘shuttle’ migration is disappearing and making room for labor migration. The Western and South-Western European directions started to dominate since the second half of 1990s.
Importance of the Eastern direction, i.e. of the Russian Federation, is gradually decreasing because wages in the Western countries are by far greater than in Russia (Euro 800-1000 against Euro 250-300) while exactions by criminals and police, corruption and bureaucratic procrastinations are manifest in the Russian Federation more strongly than in Western European countries. Majority of countryside natives and men James H. Mittelman. The Globalization Syndrome: Transformation and Resistance. — Princeton University, NJ, 2000, p.62.
works in the ‘East’ while urban natives and women work in the ‘West’. It is explained by demand, character and sphere of economic activity. Majority of migrants enters a country of destination legally using mechanisms of tourist visas. However they stay and work there illegally and outside of the legal, constitutional area, with no legal and social protection. Majority of migrants are young people, from 20 to 30 years old. The second group consists of people from 45 to 55 years old. For main aid and assistance abroad migrants rely on relatives, friends, compatriots, criminal structures, church and, less frequently, on trade unions. Moldavian community in Western European countries is in making. Probably, legalization of illegal or irregular migrants will lead to formation of a dispersion community and to reinforcement of its role in capacity of the principal social actor providing protection to fellow citizens abroad.
One more aspect of contemporary migration processes is ‘push-pull’ migration which was one of conventional forms of population movements in the USSR and Russia in the course of the 20th century. Upon collapse of the USS push and pull labor migration became perhaps the only successful survival strategy employed by population of small and medium-size depressive towns and settlements of urban type. This strategy let a considerable part of residents withstand economically. It has also shaped a segment of motivated, active, easily adjusting population.
Due to a number of reasons investigation of pull and push labor migration which used to be quite complicated has become very difficult. The state statistics of temporary movements of labor force is absent in Russia and other CIS countries. Available estimates are rather contradictory. Data adduced by V. Gromov, the minister for territorial affairs in Administration of Moscow region. According to estimates made by his ministry, thousand people go to Moscow every day. The result creates tax gap in amount of about 10 billion roubles (US $ 33 million) because taxes are collected at places of employment6 while the regional budget carries the main load of social welfare expenditures. According of estimates provided by Moscow migration service, number of labor migrants involved in pushpull traffic will rise to 3 million people.
A considerable number of people residing within Moscow metropolitan agglomeration’s zone of attraction go to their work in the capital every day or every week. Even if consequences of push-pull labor migration are Session of the Public chamber under the Governor of Moscow region, May 27, 2003:
difficult to formalize the principal consequence is the tax gap suffered by Moscow region (and, partially, by some adjacent regions) which nevertheless provides social protection of the population; however that gap is partially offset by material contributions made by push and pull labor migrants in places of their permanent residence where they expend money earned in Moscow (for foodstuffs, clothes, household appliances etc.) These injections invigorate economy of Moscow region and adjacent regions.
Growing differentiation of wages in Moscow and other regions in the second half of 1990s served as a certain detonator of push-pull labor migration while unstable economic situation that persisted from 1990 to the second half of 1990s enhanced scales of push-pull labor migration. Among persons polled mere 5% were involved in it prior to early 1990s. The highly skilled persons predominate among push and pull labor migrants. Large and diverse labor market of the capital city allows them to use their competitive advantages. The principal type of these people’s activity is employment in private companies. Important point: trade or construction is not the key spheres of their employment (these spheres are largely occupied by natives of CIS countries). Thus no more than 15% of push-pull migrants are involved in the irregular employment niche. That does not exceed the current Russian estimates of employment in the informal sector. According to calculations performed by the authors and based on analysis of passenger traffic the minimum scale of push-pull labor migration to and out of Moscow comprises 830-860 thousand people.
Putting all said in a nutshell it is possible to state for certain that CIS countries are getting to be more and more involved in the global processes of capital, people and commodities movements. The young people take the increasingly active part in these processes right from the moment of their graduation from secondary school. Vector of migration is gradually shifting to the West though Russia still remains to be the place of learning and labor migration for many young people.
Nevertheless it should be noted that change of economic paradigm that had occurred has not destroyed the pattern of internal migration traffic. Internal migration still prevails and is oriented to major cities as it used to be in the past. Yet number of young people taking part in international movements is rising, even though these movements are largely temporary ones.
МОБИЛЬНОСТЬ ВЫПУСКНИКОВ СНГ ПОСЛЕ УЧЕБЫ В
(ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЕ ТЕРРИТОРИАЛЬНЫХ ОСОБЕННОСТЕЙ
МЕСТА ПРЕДЫДУЩЕГО ПРОЖИВАНИЯ НА
МИГРАЦИОННЫЕ НАМЕРЕНИЯ)Инвестирование в образование – основная стратегия В последнем номере журнала Newsweek за 2005 год, посвященном революции в знаниях, одним из ключевых вопросов было обсуждение роли образования и высококвалифицированных специалистов в развитии мировой экономики. В статьях многих ведущих мировых экспертов и политиков отмечалось, что в эпоху глобализации растет понимание того, что конкуренция в темпах развития экономики со стороны азиатских стран, все более их тревожит. Тони Блэр8 в своей статье о судьбе Европы ясно отмечает, что только поворот к аккумулированию и производству знаний сможет дать реванш странам Запада, так как в них пока сосредотачивается основной потенциал мировых университетов. Поскольку рынок капитала глобален и не имеет национальных границ, а рынок труда национален и Запад не может производить дешевую рабочую силу, его сила и конкурентоспособность может быть в высококлассных специалистах глобального уровня (“symbolic analysts”9). Рынок сам по себе никогда не может создать экономику, основанную на знаниях (knowledge economy10), Т. Блэр считает, что должны быть не столько социальные программы помощи малоимущим, сколько включение их Newsweek. Special edition, Dec 2005-Feb 2006.The Knowledge Revolution.
Tony Blair «Europe is Falling Behind». Newsweek8. Special edition, Dec 2005-Feb 2006pp.26-27.
Называются эксперты, оперирующие информацией для решения стратегических задач.
Интеллектуальная элита глобального и национального уровня (Robert B. Reich “The Work of Nations”) Экономика информационного общества Тюрюканова Е., Леденева Л. 2003б стр. (а это 20 млн. безработных по Западной Европе) в рынок труда. Эта политика должна нести инвестиции в образование, квалификацию и науку, а не в регулирование и защиту рабочих мест, которые могут спасти, как считает Блэр, немного рабочих мест сейчас за счет большего количества мест в будущем.